近日，浙江大学中国农村发展研究院易福金教授的合著论文“More Power Generation, More Wheat Losses? Evidence from Wheat Productivity in North China”在Environmental and Resource Economics（ERE）在线发表。ERE是欧洲环境与资源经济学家协会会刊，年均发文量50篇左右。该刊在资源与环境经济学领域公认的国际权威期刊中影响因子名列第二（IF: 5.9，SSCI-Q1）。

全文引用

Yi, F., Lyu, S. & Yang, L. More Power Generation, More Wheat Losses? Evidence from Wheat Productivity in North China. Environmental and Resource Economics (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-024-00841-6

英文摘要

The adverse effects of thermal power plants on crop yield have not received adequate attention. Thus, this study aims to evaluate these effects systematically to fill the gap by utilizing county-level wheat yield data from North China spanning from 2005 to 2016. Our findings indicate that the presence of an additional upwind thermal power plant is associated with a 1.4% decline in wheat yield. Notably, these yield losses are more pronounced in regions characterized by lenient environmental regulations or a high density of large-scale thermal power plants. Reduced wheat yield due to thermal power plants results in a decline in social welfare. Furthermore, we confirm that air pollution emitted from thermal power plants is the primary driver behind the decline in wheat yield.

中文摘要

在资源环境约束背景下，能源安全与粮食安全的矛盾日趋凸显。其中，以煤炭为主的能源产业发展对农作物单产的不利影响尚未得到足够重视。本文基于2005至2016年中国华北地区县级层面农业生产数据，实证检验了火电厂建设与发展对小麦单产的影响。本文运用事件研究法识别出新建投产火电厂对小麦单产造成显著的负面影响。具体而言，每增加一座火电厂，小麦单产水平将降低1.4%。在种植冬小麦、环境治理监管力度宽松以及能源生产强度高的地区，小麦单产的不利影响更为显著。机制检验表明，空气污染是火电厂导致小麦单产减少的重要原因之一。在上述分析基础上，本文还测算了小麦减产导致社会总福利损失的情况：由火电厂造成的小麦减产占华北地区小麦消费总量的3.5%，社会福利损失达到12亿元。由于能源与粮食是经济发展的根本前提，本研究的重要贡献是提示未来需要加强国家重大战略之间的协同。