近日，浙江大学中国农村发展研究院易福金教授的合著论文“Calamitous weather, yield risk and mitigation effect of harvestmechanisation:Evidence from China's winter wheat”（农业机械化有效化解麦收期连阴雨之困——来自中国冬小麦主产区的证据）发表在期刊Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics上。

Teng Wang, Fujin Yi*, Ximing Wu, Huilin Liu & Yu Yvette Zhang (2023). Calamitous weather, yield risk and mitigation effect of harvest mechanization: Evidence from China’s winter wheat. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, first online

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12545

摘要：

在气候变化背景下，频繁发生的灾害性天气对全球粮食安全构成了严重威胁。特别是冬小麦的成熟期与中国的雨季高度契合，麦收期持续的阴雨天气已成为冬小麦减产风险的重要诱因。本文基于1998～2016年中国县级层面农业生产数据，实证研究麦收期连阴雨灾害对冬小麦产量风险的影响。研究发现，麦收期连阴雨灾害显著增加了冬小麦产量的下行风险。然而，近年来快速发展的农业机械化，通过提高作业及时性、缩短小麦收获时间，有效缓解了麦收期连阴雨灾害引发的冬小麦产量下行风险。异质性分析发现，在交通基础设施发达的平原地区，农业机械化的缓解作用更为凸显。本文有助于全面评估农业机械化对农业生产的贡献，也可为发展中国家推动农业机械化减轻与天气相关的农业生产风险提供经验借鉴。

Abstract：

Stable agricultural production has been substantially challenged by increasingly frequent calamitous weather conditions. For winter wheat, continuous precipitation during the harvest season is particularly detrimental. This study utilises a county-level panel dataset of agricultural production in China for the period of 1998–2016 to evalu-ate the impact of continuous precipitation on the downside risk of winter wheat yield. Results show that the continu-ous precipitation during the harvest season remarkably increases the downside risk of winter wheat yield. At the same time, the progressive adoption of harvest machinery in  recent decades has effectively mitigated the downside risk of winter wheat yield driven by continuous precipita-tion. The mitigation effects of harvest mechanisation are more pronounced for plain areas with better-developed transportation infrastructure.