地点：浙江大学紫金港校区创意楼A座727会议室
题目一：The Impact of Internet on Females’ Marital Status --Evidence from Rural China
摘要：Concerns about the marriage rate declining are rising worldwide, due to the linkage of marriage rate and the stability of labor market. Despite the impact of internet on marriage has drawn attention to scholars, current studies are lack of the evidences from developing countries or rural residents. To fill this gap, we evaluated the effects of internet on rural females’ marital status in China with China Family Panel Studies database (CFPS). Results indicate that the internet penetration has increased the rural females’ income and changed their mind about marriage significantly, which led them unlike to marriage, while it may increase their probability of divorce. The number of marriage decreases by 5% and divorce increase 0.3% for every 1% increase in the number of broadband users, and these effects are robust after applying an instrument variable.
主讲人：金鑫，浙江大学公共管理学院助理研究员、博士后。
主讲人简介：
金鑫，博士毕业于Tohoku Univeristy(日本东北大学）资源环境经济学系，现为浙江大学公共管理学院助理研究员、博士后。他的主要研究领域为农业经济学，长期从事农业技术经济、农业政策量化评估等研究，研究成果发表于《Food Security》，《International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health》，《農業経営研究》等期刊。
题目二：Epidemic and Hunger: The Effect of Infectious Diseases on Global Food Supply
主讲人：王硕，博士生
摘要：Why is there widespread hunger while the world produces enough food to feed everyone? This paper provides empirical evidence from the perspective of epidemic shocks that infectious disease epidemics had little impact on food production, but mainly affected global food distribution between developed countries and developing countries. Using a global dataset of 106 countries from 1990 to 2016, our IV estimates show that 1 percent increase in infectious diseases prevalence rates would significantly increase the undernourishment prevalence rates by 5.1 percent in developing countries, 10.9 percent in the least developed countries, while the effect in developed countries is not significant. The food supply of a country comes from production, trade, stocks, and aid. By comparing developed countries and developing countries, we show that when epidemic occurs, developed countries would produce more agricultural products, and import more to replenish their stocks. While developing countries have failed to increase agricultural production or alleviate food shortages through imports, stock supplies and international aid, leading to more malnutrition problems.
题目三：财政分权、定向激励与促进乡村振兴的制度安排——基于“省直管县”财政体制改革的历史经验
主讲人：张启正，博士生
摘要：县级政府在全面推进乡村振兴的过程中扮演着关键角色，为确保其高效履行支农职能，需要健全包含县级政府能力提升与定向激励的制度安排。本文总结了“省直管县”财政体制改革的相关历史经验，基于中国1994-2010年1512个县的面板数据，采用双重差分法，研究了这项改革对县域农业增长的影响。研究发现，研究期内，“省直管县”财政体制改革对农业增长存在3%-4%的负向影响。我们认为，在“中国式分权”的背景下，县级政府的行为受到了GDP考核强激励的影响，在扩权后倾向于加强经济政策的城市导向，促使改革县的城市和非农经济加速增长。但另一方面，由于农业增长考核的滞后性和非强制性，扩权县对“三农”工作的重视程度下降，财政资源加速流出农业。农业基础设施建设相对滞后城市和工业发展的红利并没有较好地反哺农业。上述因素共同导致了农业生产要素的加速流出以及农业全要素生产率的下降，构成农业增长疲软的直接原因。进一步研究发现，农业县与非农业县面对的农业考核激励存在差异，使得改革对两类县的农业增长影响存在异质性。时间维度上随着农业考核激励被引入并逐渐加强，改革对县域农业增长的负面影响随着激励的叠加有所缓解。本文基于上述历史经验，提出了相关政策性建议。
