时间：2021年6月24日（周四）下午13：00-17：00

地点：浙江大学紫金港校区公共管理学院大楼112会议室

主讲嘉宾：叶紫薇 博士

美国密歇根州立大学 农业、食品与资源经济系

主持人：郭红东 教授

浙江大学中国农村发展研究院教授、副院长，博士生导师，浙江大学中国农村发展研究院农村电商研究中心主任

主讲嘉宾简介：

叶紫薇，美国密歇根州立大学农经系博士，研究关注农业经济问题，致力于农业经济学科与环境、健康的交叉议题，近期科研成果发表于Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)等顶尖学术期刊。叶紫薇博士于2017年从浙江大学农林经济管理系本科毕业后，赴美国密歇根州立大学攻读博士学位。博士学习期间，她任职世界银行发展研究部顾问，为世界银行在乌克兰的政策分析研究提供顾问和协助。

讲座主题：Environmental and economic concerns surrounding restrictions on glyphosate use in corn

摘要：Since the commercialization of transgenic glyphosate-tolerant (GT) crops in the mid-1990s, glyphosate has become the dominant herbicide to control weeds in corn, soybean, and other crops in the United States and elsewhere. However, recent public concerns over its potential carcinogenicity in humans have generated calls for glyphosate-restricting policies. Should a policy to restrict glyphosate use, such as a glyphosate tax, be implemented? The decision involves two types of tradeoffs: human health and environmental (HH-E) impacts versus market economic impacts, and the use of glyphosate versus alternative herbicides, where the alternatives potentially have more serious adverse HH-E effects. Accounting for farmers’ weed management choices, we provide empirical evaluation of the HH-E welfare and market economic welfare effects of a glyphosate use restriction policy on US corn production. Under a glyphosate tax, farmers would substitute glyphosate for a combination of other herbicides. Should a 10% glyphosate tax be imposed, then the most conservative welfare estimate is a net HH-E welfare gain with a monetized value of US$6 million per annum but also a net market economic loss of US$98 million per annum in the United States, which translates into a net loss in social welfare. This result of overall welfare loss is robust to a wide range of tax rates considered, from 10 to 50%, and to multiple scenarios of glyphosate’s HH-E effects, which are the primary sources of uncertainties about glyphosate’s effects.