主讲题目：Rising Temperatures Reduce Accounting Profits of Chinese Manufacturing Firms

主讲人：陈晓光，教授，西南财经大学经济与管理研究院

主持人：陈帅，“百人计划”研究员

时间：4月11日（周四）下午14:00-16:00

地点：浙江大学紫金港校区启真大厦1213 

主讲人简介：

陈晓光教授，内蒙古人，蒙古族，博士，西南财经大学经济与管理研究院教授。2003年获北京大学环境科学与经济学双学士学位；2006年获中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所环境经济学硕士学位；2010年获美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校环境经济学博士学位。2012年加入西南财经大学经济与管理研究院，次年破格晋升为正教授。目前担任SSCI国际期刊Environment and Development Economics（影响因子1.264）副主编。主要从事农业经济学、环境经济学和运筹学领域的理论和应用研究。最近5年，主要致力于气候变化影响对中国工农业的影响、生物能源政策的影响和生物质能供应链管理的相关研究。共发表26篇英文学术论文，以第一或通讯作者发表论文20篇，SCI/SSCI收录论文22篇。重要的代表作包括3篇发表在环境经济学顶尖期刊Journal of Environmental Economics and Management、4篇发表在农业经济学顶尖期刊American Journal of Agricultural Economics和1篇发表在交通科学顶尖期刊Transportation Science的研究论文。主持1项国家自然科学基金面上项目，1项由世界银行和瑞典哥德堡大学共同资助的国际合作项目。2018年获国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金资助。 

摘要：Unlike the agricultural sector, the sensitivity of the industrial sector to rising temperatures has not been sufficiently quantified. China’s industrial sector has grown rapidly over the past four decades with an average annual growth rate of 8% and currently accounts for approximately 43% of China’s GDP. Quantifying the relationships between economic performance of Chinese manufacturing firms and temperature is critical to assessing whether the current growth of China’s industrial sector will continue into the future and to developing efficient strategies to cope with future warming. Here we use a rich firm-level data set of Chinese manufacturing firms with a fine-scale daily weather data set to analyze correlations between temperature and accounting profits of Chinese manufacturing firms and illustrate the channels by which temperature affects accounting profits. We show that firms’ reported accounting profits exhibit nonlinear responses to temperature: (i) decrease with higher summer temperatures and increase with higher winter temperatures; and (ii) increase with temperature up to 12-15°C and then decline strongly at higher temperatures. Higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects – raising labor costs, hurting innovation activity, and reducing industrial output by decreasing total factor productivity (TFP), investment and capital stock. If no additional adaptation is undertaken, the total accounting profits of Chinese manufacturing firms are projected to decline annually by 2.5-9.2% during the mid-21st century, equivalent to a loss of CNY 29.5-108.6 billion in 2007 values.