近日，中国农村发展研究院韩洪云教授和吴枢博士生合著论文“Structural Change and Its Impact on the Energy Intensity ofAgricultural Sector in China”（中国农业结构变化及其对能源强度的影响）在学术期刊《Sustainability》(可持续性)发表。《Sustainability》是SSCI/SCI双检索，2018影响因子2.075，五年影响因子2.177。

我国农业结构在过去四十年中发生了重大变化，主要表现为粮食种植比重下降、蔬菜等经济作物种植比重上升。同样地，农业生产领域的能源消费也在不断增加。本文利用全国1991-2016年30个省份面板数据，实证研究了农业结构变化对我国农业总能源强度、农业直接能源强度和农业间能源强度的影响，并对该影响的区域异质性进行了研究。结果表明：1）农业结构变化显著增加了农业总能源强度和间接能源强度，而显著降低了直接能源强度，主要解释在于不同作物的结构效应和种植方式来；（2）结构变化对三大行政区域的影响与国家层面的情况相似，除了结构变化对西部地区直接能源强度的影响，其原因在于蔬菜机械化的区域差异；（3）六个蔬菜产区的结果显示出较大的区域异质性，这是由于规模经济效应和蔬菜机械化的增量效应造成的；（4）燃料价格、收入、农业劳动力、老抚养比、财政支出对三类能源强度有不同但显著的影响。最后，本文给出了相应的政策启示。

Abstract: China’sagricultural structure has undergone significant changes for the past fourdecades, mainly presenting as the fall of sown proportion of grain crops andthe rise of vegetables, as has its energy consumption. Employing the panel dataon 30 provinces during 1991–2016, this paper empirically explores the impact ofagricultural structure changes (ASC) on the energy intensity of agriculturalproduction (EIAP), direct energy intensity of agricultural production (DEIAP)and indirect energy intensity of agricultural production (IEIAP) in China.Besides, the regional heterogeneity of such impact is examined. The resultsshow that: (1) ASC increases EIAP and IEIAP significantly, while ASC decreasesDEIAP, which is explained by the structural effect and different planting modesof different crops; (2) the impact in the three administrative regions issimilar to national situation, except the impact of ASC on DEIAP in the WestRegion, which is explained by regional differences of vegetable mechanization;(3) the result of the six vegetable production regions reveals greater regionalheterogeneity, and this is attributed to the scale economy effect and theincremental effect of vegetable mechanization; and (4) fuel price, income,agricultural labor, old dependency ratio, and fiscal expenditure have differentbut significant impacts on EIAP, DEIAP, and IEIAP. Finally, some policyimplications are given.