近日，中国农村发展研究院龚斌磊研究员独著论文“The Impact of Public Expenditure and International Trade on Agricultural Productivity in China”（财政支出和国际贸易对中国农业生产率的影响）被知名SSCI学术期刊《新兴市场金融与贸易》(Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, EMFT)录用。

近年来，“工业反哺农业”政策和加入世贸组织分别促使中国的涉农财政支出和农产品贸易显著增加。该文研究利用半参数随机前沿模型预测2004-2015年中国省级农业生产率，并进一步分析加入世贸组织以后涉农财政支出和农产品进出口对生产率的影响。结果表明，财政支出和农产品出口对提高省级农业生产率存在显著的正向影响，但农产品进口对农业生产率无显著影响。该文还认为，农业财政支出对农业增长贡献巨大，因此在缺乏其他刺激因素的落后地区，财政支出仍是短期内我国脱贫攻坚战的主要手段。在农业供给侧结构性改革的背景下，我国对进口农产品的引进消化吸收再创新能力有待加强，畜牧业整体竞争力也亟待提高。

该论文在2017年“International Conference on Economics and Finance: Global and Domestic Challenges and Opportunities in Emerging Economies”（国际经济与金融会议：新兴经济体的挑战与机遇）上进行了宣讲，得到与会学者的广泛认可与好评。与会期间，龚斌磊博士与Ali Kutan、Josef Brada、Iftekhar Hasan等国际知名杂志主编和教授们就中国农业问题进行了深入的探讨。

Abstract：

The “industry nurturing agriculture” reforms and WTO accession led to dramatic growth in public expenditure and international trade in China’s agricultural sector. This paper aims to estimate the effects of public expenditure and trade on agricultural productivity in China for 2004–2015. A semi-parametric production function with shape constraints is introduced to derive more accurate productivity before the productivity determinants are analyzed with an emphasis on public expenditure and trade. The empirical result shows that public expenditure and exports can effectively improve agricultural productivity, while imports have no significant effects. Policy implications are discussed in the context of supply-side reforms.