科学发展观视角下的农作物生产发展研究——以江苏省为例的实证分析董国新[1] 孙扬国[2] 李元龙[3][1]江苏工业学院经济管理学院,江苏常州213164 [2]江苏省响水县六套摘　要:利用江苏省1980～2007年农作物生产时间序列教据，基于农作物生产反应模型，实证分析了江苏省小麦、稻谷、棉花、油菜子4种主要农作物种植面积和产量对价格、物质投入费用、自然灾害与政策等因素的反应程度。结果表明，价格对农作物种植面积和产量具有显著的正面效应，物质投入费用、劳动力价格和自然灾害对农业生产的负面作用比较明显，此外，4种农作物之间还存在不同程度的竞争和促进作用。[著者文摘]关键词:农作物 生产发展 生产反应模型分类号:　F326.1[著者标引]文献标识码：C文章编号：0439-8114（2010）01-0237-04栏目信息：专论相关文献:主题相关 全文快照　　　Research on Crop Production Development -A Positive Study of Jiangsu ProvinceDONG Guo-xin,SUN Yang-guo,LI Yuan-long 1. School of Economics and Management, Jiangsu Polytechnic University,Changzhou 213164,Jiangsu,China ; 2. People＇s Government of Liutao Town,Xiangshui 224600,Jiangsu,China; 3. China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029,ChinaAbstract:Based on production response model for crop production, this paper used time serial data in Jiangsu province from 1980 to 2007 and empirically analyzed the influence of production response by price, income, production cost, natural calamity, policy and other factors in four kinds of primary crops, including rice, winter wheat, cotton and rapeseed. Empirical results showed that price and income played a significantly positive role in planting area and yield. Natural calamity negatively affected agricultural production relatively remarkably. Moreover, there were some inter- competition or inter- promotion relationships among the four crops.[著者文摘]Key words:crop; production development; production response model收稿日期:　2009-06-29修订日期:　基金资助:江苏省社会科学基金项目（08ZHD015）;江苏工业学院人文社会科学研究资助课题（JW200811）的部分成果作者简介:董国新（1977-），男，江苏常州人，讲师，博士，研究方向为农业经济管理，（电话）13888796755（电子信箱）donggx797@163.com。