摘 要:基于中国农产品区域市场均衡模型（CARMEM）基础上，本文分别利用两种方案，对2010年全国及不同区域大米、小麦、玉米的生产和消费进行了预测。结果表明，在更加开放的国内外环境下，中国可以保证粮食市场的稳定发展。正如世界银行（2003）的预计，国际市场价格对国内市场的传导作用，将导致中国粮食生产进入长期的恢复性增长阶段。预计2010年，水稻、小麦和玉米的总产量将由2002年的3．86亿吨增长到4．2亿多吨。但由于需求的增长，2010年的粮食自给率只能达到92％，明显低于中国政府的目标，相应的粮食供需缺口为3500万吨，而在拥有大量库存的2002年，供需缺口为3850万吨。根据预测，粮食缺口的3／5是小麦。中国还将成为玉米的净进口国。区域研究结果表明，东南地区的粮食缺口将进一步增加；东北、华北地区，得益于玉米生产快速增长的带动，粮食生产整体上也将实现较快增长；中南地区粮食生产量的增长将超过消费量的增长；西南和西北地区则继续维持现有的供需缺口。本文在最后还讨论了这一结果对于中国未来粮食政策的含义。[著者文摘]
关键词:中国 粮食市场 多市场模型 市场政策
分类号: Q11 Q13[著者标引]文献标识码：文章编号：相关文献:主题相关
Prospects of Grain Supply and Demand in China： A Regionalized Multi-market Simulation ModelWencong Lu（a professor at Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Zhejiang University, Hua-Jia-Chi Campus, 310029, Hangzhou, PR China.）Abstract:Based on China＇s Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model （CARMEM）, this paper projects the production and consumption of rice, wheat and maize in China toward 2010 at both the national and regional level under two different scenarios. The results show that China can ensure a stable grain market under more liberalized internal and external conditions. Transmission of world market prices as projected by the World Bank （2003） to the Chinese domestic market would lead to a long-run recovery in the growth in grain production. Total production of paddy rice, wheat and maize is forecast to increase from 386 million tons in the base period （2002） to over 420 million tons by 2010. However, the rate of grain self-supply will only be 92G due to higher demand. This may be significantly lower than the target of the Chinese government. The corresponding deficit would amount to about 35 million tons, compared with 38. 5 million tons in 2002 when China had huge grain stocks available. Three fifths of the grain deficit will occur in wheat. At the same time, China would become a net importer of maize. The regional results indicate an increasing grain deficit in East and South China. Northeast and North China will achieve higher production growth mainly due to rapid increases in maize production, while the Central South will be able to increase production faster than consumption. The Southwest and Northwest will maintain at their current deficits. Finally, some implications for future Chinese grain policies are discussed.[著者文摘]
Key words:China, grain market, multi-market model, market policy
收稿日期: 修订日期: 基金资助:
作者简介:陆文聪，E-mail： wenclu@zju. edu. cn.
关键词:中国 粮食市场 多市场模型 市场政策
分类号: Q11 Q13[著者标引]文献标识码：文章编号：相关文献:主题相关
Prospects of Grain Supply and Demand in China： A Regionalized Multi-market Simulation ModelWencong Lu（a professor at Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Zhejiang University, Hua-Jia-Chi Campus, 310029, Hangzhou, PR China.）Abstract:Based on China＇s Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model （CARMEM）, this paper projects the production and consumption of rice, wheat and maize in China toward 2010 at both the national and regional level under two different scenarios. The results show that China can ensure a stable grain market under more liberalized internal and external conditions. Transmission of world market prices as projected by the World Bank （2003） to the Chinese domestic market would lead to a long-run recovery in the growth in grain production. Total production of paddy rice, wheat and maize is forecast to increase from 386 million tons in the base period （2002） to over 420 million tons by 2010. However, the rate of grain self-supply will only be 92G due to higher demand. This may be significantly lower than the target of the Chinese government. The corresponding deficit would amount to about 35 million tons, compared with 38. 5 million tons in 2002 when China had huge grain stocks available. Three fifths of the grain deficit will occur in wheat. At the same time, China would become a net importer of maize. The regional results indicate an increasing grain deficit in East and South China. Northeast and North China will achieve higher production growth mainly due to rapid increases in maize production, while the Central South will be able to increase production faster than consumption. The Southwest and Northwest will maintain at their current deficits. Finally, some implications for future Chinese grain policies are discussed.[著者文摘]
Key words:China, grain market, multi-market model, market policy
收稿日期: 修订日期: 基金资助:
作者简介:陆文聪，E-mail： wenclu@zju. edu. cn.
