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Total-Factor Spillovers, Similarities, and Competitions in the Petroleum Industry

编辑:admin 作者:龚斌磊 时间:2018-05-14 14:19:22 访问次数:393

国农村发展研究院龚斌磊研究员独著论文“Total-Factor Spillovers, Similarities, and Competitions in the Petroleum Industry (全球油气行业的综合溢出效应、相似度和竞争)”被能源经济领域顶级学术期刊《Energy Economics》录用。《Energy Economics》位列SSCI期刊经济类Q1区(24/347),被《浙江大学社会科学国际期刊分级评价报告》认定为TOP期刊,影响影子3.199,5年影响因子4.410。这是龚斌磊研究员本年度的第五篇独著SSCI一区论文。

受全要素生产率(TFP)的启发,本文创新性地建立了全要素溢出效应、全要素企业相似度和全要素企业竞争压力指标,并在此基础上分析了石油天然气行业的多维度溢出效应、企业相似度和竞争情况。本文利用2009-2016年全球主要石油企业数据,构建多维度空间生产函数模型,从产品、科技、产业和地区四个维度综合评估石油企业间的竞争环境和溢出效应,并更准确地估计体现企业竞争力的全要素生产率,进而为研究石油企业发展提供新的理论模型,科学回答了企业管理中“谁是我的竞争对手(Who is on my list?)”和“我是谁的竞争对手(Am I on others’ lists?)”这两个重要问题。实证结果表明,全球油气行业在上述四个维度均存在负向溢出效应,产业维度过大的竞争压力将会抑制企业的竞争力。此外,本文还给出了全球各主要石油企业在各个维度的对手排名,并提出涉及企业和产业发展的政策启示。最后,本文建立的模型适用于其他存在多维度竞争的行业。

Abstract:This article investigates multi-dimensional spillovers, similarities, and competitions in the petroleum industry. Spatial techniques are applied first in production function in order to observe the cross-sectional dependence in each of the four dimensions (product-, technology-, segment-, and region-wide). These four single-dimensional spatial models are then aggregated by a model averaging method that assigns weights to different models based on their ability to explain data. Taking all dependences into consideration, this article estimates the total-factor spillovers, similarities, and competitions in the spirit of total-factor productivity. Negative spillover effects are observed in all the four dimensions. Moreover, segment-wide competition has negative effect on productivity. Some policy implications concerning human capital, globalization, and development strategies are also discussed.

Keywords: Petroleum Industry; Spatial Econometric Model; Multi-dimensional Dependence; Spillovers, Similarities, and Competitions

JEL:  L71   D24   C21   L1